The Quebec housing market in 2025 is in a deep freeze. After years of frenzied growth, pandemic-era migration shifts, and fluctuating interest rates, the province’s real estate sector has reached a near standstill.

But unlike past downturns, this freeze isn’t defined by plummeting prices or widespread defaults. Instead, it’s a freeze driven by low inventory, record-high costs, and a lack of movement among sellers who are holding tight to their existing homes — and mortgage rates.

“This isn’t a crash — it’s a stalemate,” said Félix Gagnon, housing policy analyst at the Université de Montréal. “Buyers can’t afford to jump in, and sellers see no reason to let go of their low rates.”

Here are five critical statistics that explain why Quebec’s housing market is locked up in 2025 — and what it means for those trying to buy a home.

1. Mortgage Rates Still Hover Near 7%

One of the biggest hurdles for buyers in Quebec is the persistently high mortgage rate. According to Desjardins, the average 5-year fixed mortgage rate in Quebec was 6.83% as of July 2025 — significantly higher than the pre-pandemic average of 2.75%.

Although inflation has cooled across Canada, the Bank of Canada has kept interest rates elevated to ensure long-term price stability. That means mortgage costs remain stubbornly high — particularly painful in a province where incomes in many cities have not kept pace with housing inflation.

More than 65% of Quebec homeowners currently hold mortgages under 3.5%. Giving up those ultra-low rates for today’s higher costs is deterring sellers from listing. This has created a psychological and financial lock-in effect that’s stalling market movement.

2. Active Listings in Montreal Drop 25% Year-Over-Year

With so few homeowners willing to list, inventory is plunging across Quebec. Nowhere is that clearer than in the Greater Montreal Area. According to the Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB), active listings in Montreal fell 25% in Q2 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.

In cities like Sherbrooke and Laval, inventory levels are also down by double digits. Even rural regions like Estrie and the Laurentians — which saw an influx of buyers during the pandemic — are seeing a sharp reduction in new listings.

Meanwhile, new construction isn’t filling the void. Developers are grappling with high construction costs and delayed permits, causing a sharp pullback in new builds, particularly in low-density, affordable housing projects.

“We’re seeing a supply crunch in nearly every segment,” said Annie Lapointe, a broker based in Gatineau. “It’s frustrating for buyers because even with fewer bidding wars, there’s still so little to choose from.”

3. Median Home Prices Hold at $450,000

Despite falling sales volume, home prices in Quebec have remained firm — and in some areas, they’re still rising. According to the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the median home price across Quebec was $450,000 in June 2025, up 2.3% from the previous year.

This price stickiness is driven by low inventory and continued demand in key areas. Montreal, Quebec City, and parts of the Montérégie and Outaouais regions are still attracting buyers — especially immigrants and interprovincial movers from more expensive provinces like Ontario and British Columbia.

In areas like Laval and Longueuil, bidding wars have not disappeared entirely, particularly for townhouses and renovated condos in family-friendly neighborhoods.

“The market isn’t hot, but it’s not cold either,” said Stéphane Grenier, a broker with Via Capitale. “It’s frozen — prices are holding steady, but nothing’s moving.”

4. First-Time Buyers Nearly Shut Out

Perhaps the group most affected by the 2025 freeze in Quebec is first-time homebuyers. According to data from QPAREB, only 24% of residential transactions in Q2 2025 involved first-time buyers — the lowest level in more than a decade.

The reasons are clear:

• High mortgage rates make monthly payments unaffordable
  
• Record-high prices, even in mid-size cities
  
• Rising rent makes it harder to save for a down payment
  
• The average down payment now exceeds $80,000 in Montreal
  

Quebec’s unique dual-mortgage model — which often requires requalification at renewal — adds another layer of complexity for buyers already struggling to pass the mortgage stress test.

“Young families are either leaving the city or staying in rental housing far longer than they planned,” said Marie-Claude Desrosiers, a financial advisor in Quebec City. “We’re watching homeownership dreams get pushed further out of reach.”

5. Builders Pull Back Amid High Costs

Residential construction, once seen as a pressure valve for Quebec’s housing supply, is slowing in 2025. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reports that housing starts in Quebec dropped 14% in the first half of 2025 compared to 2024.

Developers cite rising material costs, labor shortages, and municipal approval delays as key obstacles. Many are pivoting toward multi-unit projects or rental-only developments, which promise steadier returns in an uncertain economy.

In cities like Trois-Rivières and Saguenay, several single-family developments have been paused or cancelled altogether. Even in Montreal’s suburbs, new home projects are taking longer to complete, driving up wait times and dampening buyer interest.

What Analysts Say About Quebec’s Housing Freeze

Experts say that while Quebec isn’t facing a crash, the province’s housing system is in a stalemate that could stretch well into 2026.

“This isn’t a speculative bubble popping — it’s a market that’s gridlocked,” said Robert Boucher, economist with the Institut du Québec. “Until borrowing costs come down or supply is significantly expanded, it’s hard to see momentum returning.”

Potential policy changes — such as first-time buyer tax incentives or zoning reforms — could ease some of the pressure, but for now, many would-be buyers remain on the sidelines.

What Quebec Buyers Should Watch for in Late 2025

For those hoping to enter the market later this year, here are key indicators to track:

• Interest Rate Announcements: If the Bank of Canada signals rate cuts, affordability could improve.
  
• Municipal Housing Approvals: Local efforts to fast-track construction could expand inventory.
  
• Seasonal Price Softening: Historically, the Quebec market offers slightly better deals in late fall and early winter.
  
• Government Buyer Assistance: New federal or provincial initiatives could improve down payment accessibility.
  

A Market on Pause — Not in Decline

The Quebec housing market in 2025 is not collapsing — it’s simply stuck. Between high mortgage rates, low listing volumes, and unrelenting price pressure, buyers and sellers alike are locked in place.

Until interest rates fall or bold policy reforms unlock new supply, the freeze will likely persist. For now, buyers will need patience, planning, and flexibility to navigate one of Quebec’s most stubborn housing environments in recent memory.