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Washington and New Delhi had long enjoyed what was arguably the most productive post–Cold War strategic partnership over the last 25 years. But their special relationship has hit a rough patch as faith in each other falters on the issues of tariffs, Russian oil, and the Ukraine war.

“It’s the parting of the ways in many ways — a pivot to India’s east,” Evan Feigenbaum, a South Asia expert and nonresident senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told Foreign Policy. “We’re in a situation in the U.S.-India relationship where the premises and assumptions of the last 25 years — that everybody worked very hard to build, including the president in his first term — have just come completely unraveled. The trust is gone.”

In recent months, India has taken a step back from Washington as the relationship entered choppy waters after Trump slapped the world’s most populous democracy with steep tariffs on its imports earlier this year. The United States, which has accused India of not doing enough to hurt Moscow by buying Russian oil, imposed a 25 percent levy on all goods from India on June 4. It is set to double to 50 percent on Aug. 27. The decision backfired as it did not curb India’s purchases from Russia but pushed it even closer to Moscow and Beijing.

India’s national security adviser visited Moscow last month, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar held talks in the Russian capital in late June, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Indian leaders earlier this week after he visited Moscow. Modi is set to make a state visit to China this month, his first in over seven years, and could meet with Putin in Moscow before the end of the year. Analysts say the moves go beyond a geopolitical realignment for optics.

Indian public sentiment, too, has soured after what New Delhi perceived to be Washington’s interference in the bilateral relationship. “They’re signaling very clearly that they view that as interference in India’s foreign policy, and they are not going to put up with it,” Feigenbaum added.

Indian state-owned refiners bought Russian oil in April and May after U.S. sanctions were announced, despite initial reluctance. Indian refiners have been enticed by discounts of up to six to seven percent. According to analysts, Indian purchases of Russian oil have increased and may reach 35 percent of total imports this year compared to just 0.2 percent in the year before the Ukraine war. Moscow has capitalized on India’s shopping spree and is doubling down on providing Russian oil and other commodities. Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said on Wednesday that Moscow is “ready to continue the supplies of crude oil, oil products, thermal coal, coking coal, and we see potential for the export of Russian LNG.”

Michael Kugelman, a South Asia analyst at the Washington-based Wilson Center, told FP that while Trump’s tariffs have had a role to play in New Delhi’s pivot, it is not the only factor driving the shift. “We’ve seen indications for almost a year of India wanting to ease tensions with China and strengthen relations, mainly for economic reasons. But the Trump administration’s policies have made India want to move even more quickly,” he said.

He added that some of the signals being sent by India “could just be performative, like visiting Russia to let the United States know that it has other options and things like that.” Feigenbaum, however, said that “India is going to double down on some aspects of its economic and defense relationship with Russia — and those parts are not performative.”

India has moved away from Moscow even before the Ukraine war, with New Delhi gradually diversifying its defense purchases away from Russian weapons to U.S., French, and Israeli systems, according to analysts. But after the war began, India ramped up energy trade with Russia to make up for the shortages. “India is taking all this as validation of its theory that the U.S. can’t be trusted, whereas Russia can — because Russia is always going to be there for India no matter what,” Kugelman said.

India’s current political leadership, too, has no reason not to be seen cooperating with Moscow. Modi has scored political points at home by projecting himself as the defender of farmers, small businesses, and young job seekers’ livelihoods against external pressure, according to analysts. “Remember that India already gave in on a lot of things, like tariffs and bringing back Indian workers to make a deal. Because of those concessions, India needs to be careful about signaling further willingness to bend. This is one reason there was no trade deal — Modi put his foot down,” Kugelman said.